Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books and we're officially 16 games into the 2024 edition of the "Road to 272 Bets."
Through Week 1, we're sitting at 9-6-1 (+2.15 Units). We're profitable! Let's hope it stays that way for the rest of the season.
There's no time to waste, I'm already looking ahead to Week 2. I have my bets locked in for all 16 games including this Thursday's prime-time game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. If you want to listen to the audio version of this, you can find it wherever you get your podcasts. The video version is posted below.
The full list of rules that I abide by for the Road to 272 Bets is listed in the Week 1 edition, which you can read here. Now, let's dive into my best bet for every game this week.
NFL Week 2 Best Bets for Every GameBills vs. Dolphins Prediction
Despite the Bills overall looking like the better team in Week 1, I'm still a believer in the Dolphins. Their offense may not have been as explosive early in the game, but I expect them to get rolling sooner rather than later.
An under-talked-about aspect of the Jaguars vs. Dolphins game was how solid the Miami Dolphins looked, allowing just 5.3 yards per play and racking up three sacks. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense has left a lot to be desired, allowing the Cardinals to put up 28 points against them.
I'm sticking with my preseason belief that the Dolphins are the best team in the AFC East, so I won't hesitate to back them as 1.5-point favorites at home on Thursday.
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction
I took the OVER in the Buccaneers' Week 1 game against the Commanders and I'm going to place the same bet in their Week 2 game against the Lions. A big reason I bet on the OVER in the Bucs' Week 1 game was I'm of the belief they're going to have a strong offense this season but a subpar defense, which is exactly what we saw.
Everyone knows how good Baker Mayfield looked, but not many people are talking about how they allowed a bad Washington offense starting a rookie quarterback to average 5.3 yards per snap. If they don't step up against a far superior offense in the Lions, they're going to get run over in Week 2.
A similar sentiment can be said for the Lions, who looked much better offensively than defensively. I think both these teams are going to be OVER teams this season so I expect a high-scoring affair in Detroit on Sunday.
Seahawks vs. Patriots Prediction
The Patriots did enough to pull off the upset win against the Bengals, but make no mistake about it, they didn't look impressive doing it and were on the right side of two lost fumbles by the Bengals at pivotal moments in the game.
My concern about the Patriots is that they weren't able to do much offensively against a defense as bad as the Bengals. Now, they take on a Seahawks offense that allowed just 3.3 yards per play against the Broncos in Week 1. Mike Macdonald, the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, has seemingly cooked up a stout defense in Seattle.
Even if you think the Patriots' defense can match the defense of the Seahawks, which offensive unit do you trust more? To me, it's Seattle's by a significant margin. I'll lay the 3.5 points with the Seahawks.
Browns vs. Jaguars Prediction
If you plan on taking the points with the Browns because of their defense, be careful. Last season, the Browns gave up 5.8 yards per snap when playing on the road, 2.1 more yards per play than when at home. 5.8 yards per play was also the eighth most amongst all road teams in 2023.
Now, they hit the road to take on the Jaguars who kept the Dolphins to just 3.2 yards per carry in Week 1. If they can stop the Browns' run game, the Cleveland offense has no bite as long as Deshaun Watson is in at quarterback.
I'm going to fade the Browns more often than not while they continue to give Watson chances. He has continued to be abysmal since being acquired by the team. When they opt to put in Jameis Winston, I may change my tune.
Colts vs. Packers Prediction
I don't know what to take away from the Colts Week 1 performance. They averaged 7.0 yards per play, which makes you think their offense had a great game, but Jonathan Taylor got only 48 yards on 16 carries and Anthony Richardson completed only nine passes. With that being said, he averaged a blistering 23.6 yards per completion. In baseball terms, Indianapolis only hit home runs, but was unable to get on base with any consistency.
In my opinion, that kind of offense isn't sustainable. Relying on deep balls and explosive plays only isn't going to keep up on a weekly basis which means I expect a bit of an offensive regression in Week 2 against a solid Packers defense.
Then there's Green Bay, who are likely to start Malik Willis in this game. I expect next to nothing from Willis and I'd be shocked if they can put up significant points on the board. I'll take the UNDER in this one.
Chargers vs. Panthers Prediction
Unless your opinion about the Panthers drastically changed from last week to this week, you should love the Panthers getting 6.5 points at home this week. They went from four-point underdogs on the road at New Orleans to 6.5 point underdogs at home to the Chargers. That's a significant swing in point spread despite the Chargers and Saints having comparable rosters in terms of talent.
There's no denying the Panthers Week 1 performance was ugly and they're more than likely going to be a basement dweller this season, but this point spread is a bit of an overreaction to a one game sample size.
The Chargers got the job done against the Raiders, but they had a Net Yards per Play of just +0.9 on their home field. I still evaluate them as a solid team, but not good enough to be an almost-touchdown-favorite on the road against any team in the NFL.
I'll plug my nose and take the points with the Panthers.
Giants vs. Commanders Prediction
I'm not in on either of these two teams so with the Commanders set as 2.5-point favorites, I don't think there's an edge on either side. Instead, I'm going to bet the OVER and bank on the idea both these defenses are amongst the worst in the NFL.
The Giants gave up 6.1 yards per play to the Vikings in Week 1 and the Commanders gave up 6.4 yards per play to the Buccaneers. Heading into the season I was of the belief they've have two of the worst defenses in the NFL and that has been proven true through one week.
Even if you don't think either offense is good, a game involving two defenses this bad shouldn't be set at such a low number.
Raiders vs. Ravens Prediction
The Baltimore Ravens were an Isaiah Likely big toe away from giving themselves a chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs with a two-point conversion, but that doesn't mean we should necessarily make them 9.5-point favorites to the Raiders in Week 2.
Baltimore looked out of sort offensively at times against the Chiefs, not to mention their defense gave up a blistering 7.1 yards per play to the Chiefs. Sure, Kansas City is the back-to-back Super Bowl champion, but giving up that much offense is a bit of concern heading into the second week of the 2024 season.
It's an ugly bet, but I'm not quite ready to lay this many points on the Ravens. Give me the points with Las Vegas.
49ers vs. Vikings Prediction
Despite the contract issues with Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams along with missing their best player, Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers still made short work of the New York Jets on Monday night, winning by a score of 32-19.
I see no reason why the 49ers won't run over the Vikings in Week 2. I take little away from Minnesota beating up on the lowly Giants and now their quarterback, Sam Darnold, has to take on his former team in the 49ers. If anyone in the NFL knows how to attack Darnold, it's going to be Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers roll again in Week 2.
Jets vs. Titans Prediction
Despite losing the bet on the Titans last week, my belief that their defense was going to be good this season was supported by their Week 1 performance. The Titans kept the Bears' offense to 2.8 yards per play, the fewest in the NFL in the opening week. Meanwhile, Will Levis proved their offense is still going to be tough to watch in 2024.
A similar notion could be said about the Jets. We know their defense is going to be great, but their offense didn't do enough against the 49ers on Monday night to make me think Aaron Rodgers is going to turn this team into an elite offensive unit.
Both team's defenses are better than their offenses in this one. I'll take the UNDER.
Saints vs. Cowboys Prediction
The New Orleans Saints have looked good on paper the past couple of seasons, but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. While I'm trying not to overreact to a Week 1 blowout win against the lowly Panthers, I think it's possible we're seeing a Saints team finally come together. Derek Carr looked more comfortable in the offense and I like the shots he took down field, something missing from his game when playing with the Saints.
Then there are the Cowboys who took care of business against the Browns, but still managed only 4.4 yards per play. He completed just 19-of-32 passes for 179 yards and only one touchdown. Dallas benefited from abysmal offensive play from the Browns and did nothing to allow Cleveland back in the game.
I think the Saints have a better chance of winning this game than the odds indicate. They're my upset pick of the week.
Rams vs. Cardinals Prediction
I've gone back and forth on who to bet on in this game so I'm going to settle on the OVER instead. That's likely the way I'm going to go in plenty of games involving the Cardinals this year as we saw exactly what I expected from them in Week 1; An exciting offense and a porous defense.
They gave up 9.7 yards per pass attempt against the Bills, which is bad news news for them facing the Rams who still have a potent offense even with Puka Nacua missing time. Meanwhile, the Rams gave up 5.3 yards per rush against the Lions, which is a sign of just how much they miss Aaron Donald anchoring their defensive line.
Both team's offensive strengths are going to match up well against the opposing defense's weaknesses, which all adds up to this being a high-scoring affair.
Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction
I was low on the Bengals heading into this season and I was proven correct with them being on the wrong end of the worst upset of Week 1, losing to the lowly New England Patriots. I see no reason to stop fading the Bengals now, especially with them being just 5.5-point underdogs at Kansas City against a Chiefs team coming off a mini-BYE.
The Bengals have been terrible in the first two weeks of the season under Zac Taylor, going just 1-10 in Week 1 and Week 2 since 2019.
Then there are the Chiefs, who looked more explosive in Week 1 against a stout Ravens defense than they did in all of 2022, averaging a blistering 7.1 yards per play. Xavier Worthy adds an extra dynamic to this offense that teams have to deal with and Patrick Mahomes already looks like he's in mid-season form.
The Chiefs may run away with this one.
Steelers vs. Broncos Prediction
I know the Steelers were able to get the Week 1 upset win in Atlanta, but let's not forget they failed to score a single offensive touchdown. That game was more of a case of the Falcons losing it than the Steelers winning it. I'm not ready to lay three points on the Steelers on the road.
Pittsburgh managed a measly 4.1 yards per play, the seventh fewest amongst all teams in Week 1. Unless their offense under Arthur Smith improves in Week 2, I have doubts about them being able to cover a field goal spread.
Give me the points with the Broncos at home.
Bears vs. Texans Prediction
Despite losing the bet, I felt I handicapped the Titans vs. Bears game perfectly in Week 1. The Bears are going to start the season slow as their offense learns the scheme and begins to gel with each other. There are too many new pieces in this Bears offense all playing under a new offensive coordinator to expect them to be competent early in the season. They averaged 2.8 yards per play, by far the fewest amongst all teams in the opening week.
Therefore, I won't hesitate to lay the 6.5 points with the Texans at home on Sunday night football. The Texans defense still has some questions, most notably with them allowing the Colts to connect on several deep shots, but as a whole Houston looked like the team we all expected them to be this season.
Now's not the time to start betting on the Bears. Continue to fade them until markets properly adjust to their slow start to the season.
Falcons vs. Eagles Prediction
The Falcons didn't play any of their starters in the preseason and it certainly looked like it in Week 1 against the Steelers. Despite being one of the worst looking offenses in the opening week, I expect them to do nothing but improve as the weeks go on.
The bright side in Atlanta is their defense looked strong, keeping the Steelers out of the end zone and allowing just 4.1 yards per carry.
Speaking of defense, the not enough people are talking about how bad the Eagles looked on that side of the ball, allowing the Packers to gain an eye-popping 7.1 yards per play. Despite Philadelphia getting the win, they showed plenty of red flags themselves.
It's an ugly bet, but I'll try my best not to overreact to Atlanta's Week 1 performance and take them with the points in Week 2.
