College football has a lot of moving parts.
With 134 teams and countless games starting on the weeknights and raging through late in the evening on Saturdays, there’s a lot to digest week-to-week. Luckily, I do that all for you. With marquee matchups like Tennessee visiting Oklahoma in the Sooners’ SEC debut and USC heading to Ann Arbor to face the defending National Champion Michigan Wolverines, there’s a lot to prep for from a betting perspective.
Below, I have you covered with all the actionable info you need to bet on each game featuring a top-25 team in this week’s Reed ‘Em and Weep.
College Football Week 4 Betting GuideIllinois vs. Nebraska Betting NotesIn my opinion, this is the first test for the Nebraska offense this season as Illinois has found its footing on defense after losing some key pieces in 2023. The team rattled Kansas’ quarterback Jalon Daniels into three interceptions and ranks 16th in pass rush grade thus far. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola has been great through three games but hasn’t had to raise his level. According to Pro Football Focus, he has made two big-time throws and only one turnover-worthy play. Nebraska hasn’t had to play a full 60 minutes just yet, which has led to a drop in scoring, but Illinois’ offense may provide a test. The Fighting Illini rank inside the top 20 in EPA/Pass and can test the Cornhuskers secondary through the air with the emergence of Zakhari Franklin from Ole Miss. Last season, Nebraska won 20-7 in Champaign, but that game had a comedy of errors in scoring situations, including Illinois getting stuffed twice at the one-yard line on the first drive of the game. I believe with Nebraska forced to keep pushing on offense, this game is set to go over the total despite a low number due to the slow tempo. Marshall vs. Ohio State Betting NotesOhio State continues to cruise through a glorified preseason, so I’m going to have my eye out for stud freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has 211 yards receiving in two games this season with three touchdowns. Further, I’d like to see the emerging running back room with Ohio State. Will TreVeyon Henderson or Quinshon Judkins come out of the BYE week with a difference in carries? Thus far, Judkins has 22 carries and Henderson has 18. NC State vs. Clemson Betting NotesThe Wolfpack are starting freshman quarterback CJ Bailey in place of transfer Grayson McCall. This is a tough spot for Bailey to make his first start, on the road against arguably the best defense in the ACC, but I do believe that NC State can keep this game respectable on the scoreboard. I’m not sure which side of the coin the Tigers land on when looking at its first two games, but it’s hard to look past Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 defense limiting Cade Klubnik and the Tigers offense to 17 points in Raleigh last season on only 364 yards. NC State won that game with only 202 yards, 24-17 in a game that closed with a total of 43.5. While Clemson’s pass-catching group is in better shape this season, I’m not sold that this team is going to be pouring it on offensively against above-average defenses like the Wolfpack. Moving forward, I’m going to look to play on NC State as the team may be better off with the freshman under center. This game may be a disaster, but there is a chance that Dave Doeren’s bunch isn’t an underdog for the rest of the season.Arkansas State vs. Iowa State Betting NotesIowa State returns to action after having Week 3 off and a final tune-up before Big 12 play. Last we saw the Cyclones, the team was able to rally to beat Iowa in the annual Cy-Hawk Game. Can Rocco Becht continue to show growth as a deep passer? He has raised his passes of more than 10 yards from 33% last season to 38% this season, per Pro Football Focus, completing 14-of-24 of those passes. With more of a vertical passing game, this can open up running lanes for the explosive Abu Sama. USC vs. Michigan Betting NotesThe Wolverines will start quarterback Alex Orji on Saturday against USC, a signal that the team will implement a heavy dose of the run game against the Trojans’ revamped defense under D’Anton Lynn. Hello, Kalel Mullings. The best running back in the Michigan backfield has continued to eat into Donovan Edwards’ workload, and I believe this trend will continue throughout the season. I’m on his over 60.5 rushing yards as the Wolverines look to play keep away from the Trojans pass-happy offense. I don’t have much faith in Michigan generating scoring chances as the team won’t have a viable passing game. Orji hasn’t showcased he can throw the ball downfield, and Michigan’s pass-catching group is in dire condition following the National Championship run. On top of that, the team’s top pass catcher, Colston Loveland, left last week’s game with an injury that could limit his ability. The tight end was reportedly trending in the right direction, but he is someone to monitor ahead of Saturday. I bet the under in this game that has continued to tick down throughout the week. I still would play this above the key number of 44 as I expect we see Michigan struggle to gain traction against the USC defense, but also the Trojans to keep it conservative against Michigan’s defense. Similar to the Texas game, Michigan was able to stop the run but eventually broke down against the Longhorns' quick passing game. In that game, Texas had a negative EPA/Rush number, but posted an 84th percentile EPA/Pass mark relative to games last season, per GameonPaper. Look for USC to implement the same and to methodically move down the field in Miller Moss’ first true road start, setting up for limited scoring chances and an under. Kent State vs. Penn State Betting Notes Fellas, Kent State is terrible. The Golden Flashes lost to a bad FCS team in St. Francis and then got its doors blown off by Tennessee in Knoxville last week, 71-0. Penn State is laying a number similar to Tennessee did last week, -49, which seems about right, but I’m not sure the market can capture how bad this Kent State team is. After a slow start against Bowling Green, and a BYE week in between, the Nittany Lions may want to assert its dominance and pour it on its lowly opponent, but keep in mind that the team hosts a ranked Illinois team next week at home.
UCLA vs. LSU Betting Notes
UCLA is bad. I mean, we knew the Bruins would be bad, but not this bad. The Bruins struggled to move the ball against Mountain West bottom dweller Hawai’i, and then got blitzed at home against Indiana to the tune of 42-13. Now, the Bruins head to Baton Rouge to face LSU, who will benefit from facing a sub-par defense after a grueling effort at South Carolina. The Tigers have one of the highest floors on offense in the country and may have found its new lead back in freshman Caden Durham, who ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns in the win last week. UCLA ranks 97th in yards per play so far this season and will be in a negative game script for much of this one. This can be a great setup for overs on the likes of Garrett Nussmeier and Kyren Lacy prop bets.Miami (Ohio) vs. Notre Dame Betting NotesNotre Dame is in a familiar spot as a four-touchdown favorite against a MAC school. No, I won’t bank on an upset yet again, but I do see the case for the RedHawks to remain within the number against the Irish, who continue to be ravaged by injuries. The team lost two more starters last week, defensive end Jordan Botelho and (another) offensive lineman Ashton Craig, for the season. This comes on the heels of a demolition of Purdue last week, but don’t forget that Riley Leonard was questionable ahead of that one with a shoulder injury. Will the team put another team down again with a must-win game against Louisville in South Bend on deck? The RedHawks may not be as dominant as the MAC title team was on defense, but the unit is top 50 in both explosive rush and pass rate and both teams rank outside the top 100 in seconds per play. If not a play on the massive underdog, the under could be worth a look.
Georgia Tech vs. Louisville Betting Notes
The Yellow Jackets are 11-3 in a year-plus under Key as an underdog against the spread and a remarkable 8-5 straight up as an underdog.Georgia Tech’s offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner is one of the best in the sport and is sure to be in reports for vacancies next hiring cycle. The Yellow Jackets deploy a dynamic offense that is currently averaging over seven yards per play and is 13th in EPA/Play this season. Last season, Georgia Tech lost 39-34 on a neutral field against Louisville but out-gained the Cards by 14 yards. Louisville is a highly touted team this season, but it’s fair to question what we know about this team that only played Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to date. The Cardinals ranked outside the top 100 in returning production on the offensive side of the ball, there is a ton of variance on this sideline for a team that is laying double digits. Keep an eye out for the Cards, who could be looking ahead to a showdown at Notre Dame next weekend. Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Betting NotesLet down for Northern Illinois? The Huskies go from being four-touchdown underdog winners to two-touchdown chalk against a rebuilding Buffalo team. The Bulls may have a ton of turnover under first-year head coach Pete Lembo, but the team has looked the part thus far, fifth in tackles for loss and 33rd in yards per play allowed. Northern Illinois is 8-16 against the spread as a favorite under head coach Thomas Hammock. Utah vs. Oklahoma State Betting NotesPlenty of questions ahead of this one, but it’s believed that Utah quarterback Cam Rising will play after missing last week due to a laceration on his hand. However, the betting market disagrees, moving the Utes from two-point favorites to two-point underdogs on the road late Wednesday night. If Rising doesn't go, I believe the Pokes close near a touchdown chalk in the Big 12 opener. If healthy, Utah’s offense should have an edge on Oklahoma State’s defense that looks worse for wear this season, currently 105th in yards per play allowed and bottom 20 in both explosive run and pass rate. However, will Utah’s defense show up? Normally stout, the Utes allowed Utah State to move the ball well in the Week 3 matchup, allowing an above-average yards per play mark of more than six ypp. The Cowboys have a dynamic offense, but it may not be what we expected so far. Ollie Gordon and the Pokes rush attack is averaging less than four yards per carry, but veteran quarterback Alan Bowman and the passing game is 19th in EPA/Pass while the offensive line hasn’t allowed a sack yet. Of course, this is Utah’s debut in the Big 12, and the team will be leaving the friendly confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Can Rising show up correctly and the team maintain a high level of play against a newly found conference contender? Vanderbilt vs. Missouri Betting NotesThis is a bet on Vanderbilt or nothing. “Reed, what are you talking about, Vandy just lost to Georgia State outright?” Well, dear reader, the situations are vastly different in this one. Vanderbilt is a far better bet as an underdog, boasting the 24th-highest rush percentage (60.74%). The Commodores keep the clock moving and have the 41st-best EPA/Play mark. Of course, this is SEC play now and Missouri has College Football Playoff aspirations, but I do question if the Tigers can get margin given the team’s lack of explosiveness thus far. Missouri has weapons on offense but is 94th in explosive rush rate and 127th in explosive pass rate. All that to be said, I need a 21 to get involved with Vandy. Miami vs. South Florida Betting NotesMiami’s win against Florida isn’t aging as well as some had initially thought with the Gators already circling the drain in 2024, and now many are pegging the Bulls as a potential threat for the Hurricanes this season. I’m not sold on that. Not that I’m rushing to lay it with the U, but more so I question if South Florida has the ability to test this Miami secondary. Bulls’ quarterback Byrum Brown is an explosive dual-threat player in Alex Golesh’s offensive scheme, former Tennessee offensive coordinator. However, he is still struggling as a passer. The team is 117th in EPA/Pass so far this season and Brown is completing only 56% of his passes on five yards per attempt. If the Bulls can’t move the ball efficiently through the air, I believe it will have too many stalled drives to keep up with Miami’s offense, which is currently second in EPA/Play. Tennessee vs. Oklahoma Betting NotesThe Tennessee hype train faces its first true road test, against head coach Josh Heupel’s alma mater. The Oklahoma offensive line is going to be up against it in this one against a vaunted Tennessee pass rush that features future top-five pick James Pearce. The Sooners have allowed nine sacks so far this season and rank 116th in yards per play, not the potent offense that the team had envisioned when handing the starting quarterback duties over to Jackson Arnold. Arnold is a dynamic rusher, but he hasn’t been able to produce as a passer. The team’s offense is 121st in EPA/Play and likely won’t give him time to throw against a potentially vulnerable Vols secondary. Arnold has been pressured on 28% of his dropbacks, completing only 35% of his passes. How will the Vols offense look in the team’s likely first 60 minutes of full action? Nico Iamaleava’s numbers look pedestrian given the blowout nature of the team’s first three games, but he has been dazzling thus far. Can he handle a veteran OU defense on the road? A strong showing from the Vols’ quarterback will likely push him to a tie with the group of Jalen Milroe and Jaxson Dart amongst Heisman Trophy contenders if you are looking to capture some upside in the futures market in this one. I would be keying in on Tennessee in moneyline parlays as a likely winner. Bowling Green vs. Texas A&M Betting NotesDoes Texas A&M have a QB controversy?Freshman Marcel Reed looked more than capable last week in the Aggies win at Florida, but it appears that anybody can score on the Gators. While the Aggies now face a MAC team, the Falcons have proven that it can hang with high-end competition, covering as 34.5-point underdogs at Penn State two weeks ago ahead of a BYE week. The points spread is far shorter in this one, but the Falcons are expected to get back stud running back Terion Stewart to help move the ball against the Aggies vaunted front. I’m not betting on this one, but this is an interesting data point to see if Reed can continue to push Weigman for the QB1 duties for the rest of the season. Georgia Southern vs. Ole Miss Betting NotesAnother non conference game for Ole Miss, another opportunity for Jaxson Dart to build up his Heisman Trophy candidacy and for Tre Harris to grow into his role as Biletnikoff Award contender. Dart leads the nation in passing yards at 1,172 and Harris is fourth in receiving yards at 403. Georgia Southern allowed 56 points to Boise State in Week 1 and hasn’t faced a capable offense since. Ole Miss continues to be priced out as the team keeps its foot on the gas pedal to rack up stats, and Georgia Southern will be a willing customer, playing at the 32nd fastest pace in the country. If props become available, oddsmakers can’t set Dart’s passing yards and Harris's receiving yards high enough. Louisiana-Monroe vs. Texas Betting NotesWhile Quinn Ewers is listed as questionable for this one, Arch Manning is very likely to start against Louisiana-Monroe. This is going to be a blowout with the Longhorns lying north of six touchdowns, but I’m curious to see how head coach Steve Sarkisian handles this game with injuries around the roster and now some quarterback depth concerns. Manning is a super-talented arm, but this may not be the 60-minute showcase that some would hope to believe he is a Heisman Trophy contender. Texas can’t afford to lose Manning now as well. Kansas State vs. BYU Betting NotesBYU is live for the upset this week While I’ve been fading the Cougs as favorites, this is the time to get in on Kalani Sitake’s squad, which has edges on both sides of the field. K-State was gashed by Tulane in Week 2 and this is a BYU team that has a lot of similarities to the Green Wave at quarterback with both BYU’s Retzlaff and Tulane’s Mensah taking shots down the field and stretching the secondary. Retzlaff has 11 big-time throws already this season and is aggressive pushing the ball down the field. More than 46% of his throws are traveling more than 10 yards in the air. Arizona was able to move the ball on K-State for much of last week’s outing as well, but penalties derailed several drives as well as an ill-timed interception in opponent territory. However, BYU has ranked in the top half of the country in penalty yards per game since 2020, a disciplined unit. At home, I don’t envision the Cougs being called for nine penalties for 74 yards like Zona was. As for Kansas State’s offense, I question the validity of the passing game on the road. While the team let Avery Johnson loose last week as he scampered for over 100 yards, he may need to throw this week against a stout BYU defensive line that has tallied 19 tackles for loss in three games. If this becomes a pass-first K-State offense, I fancy the home underdog quite a bit. Johnson has made four big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season, per Pro Football Focus, and has completed 50% of his throws of more than 10 yards, making up 33% of his passes.
