Sunday’s massive NBA slate yielded a 2-for-4 day in my NBA Best Bets, but I’d love to have an even better day on Monday with 14 teams in action.
The slate begins with Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors taking on the Charlotte Hornets for the second time in a week, and it seems that they’ll get Jimmy Butler (probable) back in action after he missed Saturday’s loss to Philadelphia.
Golden State is one of two spread picks that I’m eying for Monday, and there are two under-the-radar prop bets that I’m looking at as well.
Here’s a complete breakdown of each of the plays for March 3.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 169-158-4 (+3.53 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1179-1103-26 (+41.62 units)
NBA Best Bets TodayPortland Trail Blazers +3.5 (-108) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unitKhris Middleton UNDER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unitKeegan Murray OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unitGolden State Warriors -12 (-112) vs. Charlotte Hornets – 0.5 unitPortland Trail Blazers +3.5 (-108) vs. Philadelphia 76ers – 0.5 unit
This is the second night of a back-to-back for the Blazers after they nearly upset the Donovan Mitchell-less Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday.
Portland enters this game with the best against the spread record in the NBA on the second night of a back-to-back this season (7-1-1), and it is also 14-12-1 against the spread as a road dog after covering on Sunday.
Now, it takes on a Philly team that has covered the spread just one time in 14 tries as a home favorite . The Sixers are without Joel Embiid and could be down Paul George (questionable) in this matchup.
Plus, over their last 10 games, the Blazers are 11th in the NBA in net rating while Philly is all the way down in 29th.
I can’t lay the points with this depleted Sixers team, especially against a surging squad like Portland.
Khris Middleton UNDER 23.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
Veteran forward Khris Middleton has played in four games with the Washington Wizards, and while he has helped raise their ceiling, I’m still not sold on him stuffing the stat sheet on Monday against a tough Miami Heat defense.
Here’s a look at some key Middleton stats over his four games in Washington:
Game
Minutes
PRA
vs. Milwaukee
24:32
19
vs. Brooklyn
25:53
15
vs. Portland
24:01
17
@ Charlotte
24:04
28
While Middleton did clear this prop against the Hornets on Saturday night, Miami is much better than the team that has the worst net rating in the NBA over its last 10 games.
Plus, Middleton’s ceiling is limited by the fact that he’s played no more than 25:53 in a single game or taken more than 10 shots. I can’t trust him at this number on Monday.
Keegan Murray OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
I love this matchup for Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray, as nearly every key big man has been ruled out on Monday.
Domantas Sabonis is out for the Kings, and Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are all out for Dallas. In addition to that, the Dallas Mavericks won’t have forward PJ Washington active tonight either.
So, Murray, who is averaging 6.9 rebounds per game, may be asked to carry a big load on the glass for the Kings against a small-ball Mavs lineup.
Murray has cleared 6.5 boards in two of the three games that he’s played without Sabonis this season, grabbing 12 rebounds in the last game that the star center missed. In addition to that, Dallas ranks 29th in the NBA in rebounding percentage over its last 10 games (only the San Antonio Spurs are worse).
Murray has also cleared this prop in 10 of his last 20 games, so he’s a threat to hit seven or more boards even under more normal circumstances.
Golden State Warriors -12 (-112) vs. Charlotte Hornets – 0.5 unit
Back on Feb. 25, the Warriors dominated the Hornets in Golden State, winning by 36 points.
While I’m not expecting that big of a blowout on the road, the Warriors are 7-1 straight up in the games that Jimmy Butler has played in this season.
Not only that, but Golden State is fourth in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games (+10.9) while the Hornets are dead last over that stretch at a shocking -19.6.
Charlotte has double-digit losses to Golden State, Washington, Sacramento and Portland since Feb. 22, and it also lost by seven to a shorthanded Dallas Mavericks squad.
After watching the Hornets lose by double digits at home to Washington, I can’t take them here. Golden State has been decent against the spread when favored on the road (8-7-1), and it is by far the more talented team in this matchup.
With a win, the Warriors would jump into the No. 6 seed in the West, so I don’t expect them to mess around on Monday night.
