To open Week 12 of the NFL season, SI Sportsbook had seven games with a total line of 42.5 points or less.
You’d think there would be more games than that with the way offenses have played this season, especially with three Thursday games and one Friday game this week.
This might be a perfect opportunity to hammer the under for over/under bets this week (My two over bets failed me last week). I have my eye on four games that probably shouldn’t have a total line of 43.5 or more. I did go bold with one under bet well under 40 points.
Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 11 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Panthers (1–9) at Titans (3–7)
I tend to stay away from total lines this low for under bets, but these are two of the worst offenses in the league. You probably don’t need to say “arguably” when referring to the Panthers as the worst offense this season. The Bryce Young-led Panthers haven’t cracked 15 points in a game since Week 6, and now have to face a tough Titans’ defense. Carolina entered Week 12 ranked 29th in points scored (163) and 31st in yards gained (2,667). The Panthers have also struggled defensively, allowing 27.5 points per game, which ranked 31st heading into Week 12. But Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble if the defense can contain running back Derrick Henry, who has been held under 40 rushing yards the past two games. With the Titans being one-dimensional, rookie quarterback Will Levis has struggled the past two games after a strong start as the team’s starter. Tennessee hasn’t cracked 16 points since Levis’s starting debut in the Week 8 victory against the Falcons.
2. Buccaneers (4–6) at Colts (5–5)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Under
The Colts’ streak of scoring 20-plus points in every game this season came to an end during their Week 10 victory against the Patriots in Germany. Indianapolis likely won’t be held to 10 points again, but Gardner Minshew and the offense could have issues vs. a stout Tampa Bay defense. But I do worry about how inconsistent the Buccaneers' defense has been at times this season, like allowing 39 points to the Texans in Week 9 and only six points to the Titans in Week 10. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers scored 37 points in that shootout against C.J. Stroud’s Texans, the one time they scored 30 points in a game this season. Expect both teams to hover around 20 points to make this bet interesting, but have faith in the under here.
3. Rams (4–6) at Cardinals (2–9)Over/Under: 44.5Prediction: Under
I probably shouldn’t jinx myself, but I’ve done well betting the under in games involving the Rams this season. The oddsmakers overrate the Rams’ offense because Sean McVay is the play-caller, while underestimating the job defensive coordinator Raheem Morris has done with an inexperienced defense behind Aaron Donald. The Rams haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since the prior meeting vs. the Cardinals in Week 6, and the last time they reached 30 points was in Week 1 vs. the Seahawks. Los Angeles could receive a boost from the return of running back Kyren Williams, but the offense might be without Cooper Kupp, who’s dealing with an ankle injury. Arizona scored nine points the last time they played Los Angeles. Kyler Murray and James Conner didn’t play in that game, but the Cardinals were held to 16 points against a suspect Texans’ defense last week.
4. Bills (6–5) at Eagles (9–1)
Something seems off here with a total line this high, especially with the Bills’ offense being stagnant for long stretches this season. Perhaps the oddsmakers were impressed with the Bills in last week’s win against the Jets with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady as Josh Allen’s play-caller. Buffalo scored 32 points against a talented Jets’ defense, but that was the first time the team scored more than 30 points since Week 4. Finding the end zone in Philadelphia will be tough for Buffalo—the Eagles’ defense held the Chiefs to 17 points Monday night. As for the Eagles’ offense, they can certainly score points against a struggling Bills’ defense. But the Eagles have been held under 300 total yards in their past two games against the Cowboys and Chiefs. Jalen Hurts and his offense have had a rollercoaster season through 10 games.
5. Chiefs (7–3) at Raiders (5–6)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Under
If you watched the Chiefs’ loss to the Eagles on , you’re well aware of the Chiefs averaging only five points in the second half this season. So all the Raiders need to do is contain Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce for the first two quarters. Obviously, that likely won’t be the game script for this AFC West clash, but the Raiders’ defense has vastly improved this season and could give the Chiefs fits in Las Vegas. Also, the Chiefs have made it easier on opposing defenses by dropping passes and committing turnovers in the red zone. The Raiders hung tough vs. the Dolphins last week, only allowing 20 points in the road loss. But the Raiders’ year-long struggles on the offensive side continued in Week 11, with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell throwing three interceptions against the Dolphins.
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